“A New Growth Model for the Greek Economy”
The Economic Chamber of Greece in cooperation with the Greek Parliamentary Budget Office, the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, the Democritus University of Thrace and the University of the Peloponnese, organized an International Conference entitled “A New Growth Model for the Greek Economy”, which was held on June 3rd, 2015 in Athens, Greece.
The purpose of the conference was to create an international meeting point for Greek and foreign researchers who would share and generate ideas about a new growth model for the Greek Economy.
The country’s economy will return to growth only if the agreement is trustworthy and complete, otherwise uncertainty will remain, said Zsolt Darvas, Professor and top executive of Brugel Institute. According to Mr. Darvas, if Greece covers 1/3 of the distance that keeps it apart from the 3 countries with the best performance, based on the reforms indexes, the GDP will increase by 4 basis points during the next 5 years and 18 basis points in the next 20 years.
Mr. Darvas estimated that if the achievement is agreed, then the economy will stop crawling and we will be optimistic for the next three years. He also supported that if there is no agreement, there will be increased possibilities for Greece to exit the Eurozone, which will cause an additional increase in the GDP by 10%, an increase in unemployment and extra measures for fiscal adjustment.
Professor Hasan Iftekhar, E. Gerald Corrigan Chair in International Business & Finance at Fordham University, noted that the Greek Government can lead only if real action is taken, which will cause positive results in a macroeconomic level. In order for this to occur, he claimed that business and investments should be supported with tax incentives and loan guarantees.
Professor Paolo Manasse, from Bologna University, mentioned three basic directions that the Greek Economy should take in order to have a speedy and effective recovery from the crisis:
The immediate product market liberalization. As he mentioned, the large cuts in salaries did not occur with concurrent drop in product prices.
The lifting of credit limitations in small/medium sized businesses.
Not to reform the pension system at the time, as there was a great reduction of pensions and salaries during the previous years.
The President of the Economic Chamber of Greece, Konstantinos Kollias, referred to the conference as the “first organized effort during the past five years to report and search the country’s developmental potential” and emphasized the need for a national plan that “will lead the country to fiscal balance and growth”. He also added that changes and interventions are needed with regards to providing support in exports, while he also noted that “the state needs to be transformed. Firstly, from a producer to a regulator, and secondly, from an owner to an investor”.
An agreement with the creditors is the only choice for the country, supported the head of Budget Office of the State in Parliament, Professor Panagiotis Liargovas, speaking about crossroads: “Disagreement or agreement with the partners? There is only one choice. That of the agreement, which will offer at the same time potential for future growth and exit to the markets”.
Former Minister of Finance and Vice President of Piraeus Bank, Professor Nikos Christodoulakis, supported that investments amounting to €107billion are required by 2021, in order to recuperate for the lost ground of the past years (5-10% of GDP is being destroyed annually due to the mass deconstruction of the country’s productive capital), but also to create a healthy productive base. “Due to the fact that many sectors have collapsed, it is an opportunity for new investments not to take place in the form of supplementing older sectors, but to be used to create “added value” to new sectors”.
Former representative of the country to the IMF, Professor Panagiotis Roumeliotis, said that 2010 “instead of starting a discussion on whether the debt is sustainable, we started discussing what fiscal effort Greece needs to make. The Europeans tried and accomplished to postpone the discussion in order to save their banks. If the sustainability of the Greek debt was then faced, we would not have had a 6% fiscal adjustment. That is when the Greek economy started to shrink. A recession without precedent even larger than the one in 1929”. He also noted that we will be lead to the same mistakes, if we attempt to solve our cash issues prior to having a discussion regarding the debt relief.
“In order to have a clear developmental outcome, it is required that the debt is faced, structural changes and reforms are made, and trust is restored both internally and externally”, supported the General Manager of the Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research, Nikos Vettas, defining the debt reduction as key for the country’s potential.
“Our achievement is to have a road map with no memorandums in the end, but the return of the Greek Economy to sustainable development and the restoration of the social cohesion”, noted the Vice President of the Parliament and SIRIZA Parliament member, Alexis Mitropoulos. He added, “With the new agreement, the government is given more degrees of freedom to deal with the crisis, as long as requirements for fiscal surpluses are less. There will be fiscal measures, that will protect fiscal balance, but the goal is the total developmental outcome of the new agreement to be positive for the economy. With the new agreement we are searching for those degrees of freedom that will allow us to form a developmental policy that will be the basis for the new road map for the future of the Greek economy. We cannot agree with a number of policies where austerity will play a leading role”.
Reforms promoted by the previous government were defended by New Democracy Parliament member and former Minister Kostis Hatzidakis, highlighting that: “We chose to conflict with team interests of three or twelve thousand people in order to find jobs for 1.5 million unemployed. He also referred to the tax framework, highlighting that there is no point to make changes in taxation and then, as soon as the government changes, to remove it and legislate from scratch. “The country is in need of the stable taxation system in order to attract investments”.
(Click on the names to view the resumes)
- Professor Zsolt Darvas, Senior Fellow, Bruegel.
- Professor Hasan Iftekhar, Professor of Finance & Corrigan Chair in International Business & Finance, Fordham University School of Business.
- Professor John Kose, Professor of Banking & Finance, New York University, Stern School of Business.
- Professor Paolo Manasse, Professor of Macroeconomics and International Economic Policy, University of Bologna.
- Professor Panagiotis Roumeliotis, Emeritus Professor of Economics, Panteion University of Athens, Former Alternate Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund.
- Professor Nicos Christodoulakis, Professor of Economic Analysis, Athens University of Economics and Business.
- Professor Nikos Vettas, General Director, Foundation for Economic & Insustrial Research (IOBE). Professor of Department of Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business.
- Mr. Alexis Mitropoulos, Member of the Greek Parliament for SIRIZA, 2nd Vice President of the Greek Parliament.
- Mr. Kostas Hatzidakis, Member of the Greek Parliament for Athens B- New Democracy. Former Minister of Development and Comptetitiveness.
- Dr. Konstantinos B. Kollias, President of the Economic Chamber of Greece.
- Professor Panagiotis Liargovas, Coordinator Parliamentary Budget Office, Greece. Jean Monet Professor of European Integration and Policies, University of Peloponnese.
- Professor Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Professor of Department of Economics, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens. Director of the International Economics and Development Sector.
- Professor Dionysios Chionis, Professor of the Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace.
Wednesday, 3rd of June 2015
08:30- 09:00 Registration
09:00- 09:10 Welcome Speech
Dr. Konstantinos Kollias, President of the Economic Chamber of Greece.
Prof. Panagiotis Liargovas, Coordinator Parliamentary Budget Office, Greece. Jean Monnet Professor of European Integration and Policies, University of Peloponnese.
09:10- 09:40 Prof. Zsolt Darvas, Senior Fellow, Bruegel.
Is Greece Destined to Grow?
09:40-10:10 Prof. Hasan Iftekhar, Professor of Finance & Corrigan Chair in International Business & Finance, Fordham University’s Schools of Business.
Diversification and the Economy: The role of government in Enhancing Industrial Base.
10:10-11:10 Panel Discussion: Can there be Greek growth after the crisis?
Co-ordinator: Prof. Panagiotis Petrakis, Professor of Department of Economics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens. Director of the International Economics and Development Sector.
Prof. Panagiotis Roumeliotis, Emeritus Professor of Economics, Panteion University of Athens.
Former Alternate Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund.
Prof. Nicos Christodoulakis, Professor of Economic Analysis, Athens University of Economics and Business.
Prof. Nikos Vettas, General Director, Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research (IOBE).
Professor of Department of Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business.
11:10- 11:40 Prof. John Kose, Professor of Banking and Finance, New York University Stern School of Business.
Risk and Corporate Governance.
11:40- 12:10 Prof. Paolo Manasse, Professor of Macroeconomics and International Economic Policy, University of Bologna.
Lessons for Europe from the Greek Crisis.
12:10- 12:30 Coffee Break
12:30- 13:30 Panel Discussion: Greek Economy. Prospects and Challenges.
Co-ordinator: Prof. Dionysis Chionis, Professor of Department of Economics,
Democritus University of Thrace.
Alexis Mitropoulos, Member of the Greek Parliament for SIRIZA, 1st Vice President of the Greek Parliament.
Mr. Kostas Hatzidakis, Member of the Greek Parliament for Athens B – New Democracy. Former Minister of Development and Competitiveness.
Dr. Konstantinos Kollias, President of the Economic Chamber of Greece.
«A New Growth Model for the Greek Economy»
13:30- 15:30 Section 1. The Long-term View and the Growth Requirements.
Greece at crossroads: to innovate or not to innovate? *
Is there an Easy Way Out? Redenomination Issues and their Financial
Consequences in Case of a Greek Exit from the Eurozone. *
David Amiel, Paul-Adrien Hyppolite
Demographic Challenges Facing Long Term Growth in Greece.*
Qualifying and quantifying the Greek structural reform efforts.*
Sustainable growth dynamics for the Greek Economy. *
Developing Growth Potential for the Greek Economy. *
On the Greek Growth Model.
The Greek growth decoupling: A synthesis of the experiences between
Greece and Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and the Baltics.
Pantelis Kostis, Kyriaki Kafka, Dionysis Valsamis
Fiscal multipliers and growth in the Greek economy: with an assessment
of the recent fiscal adjustment program.
Sotiris K. Papaioannou
15:30- 16:00: Light Lunch Break
16:00- 18:00: Section 2. Challenges and Opportunities in the Greek Economy in the Eve of the Crisis.
The Determinants of Business Cycles in Greece:
An Empirical Investigation (1995-2014).*
Efthymios Tsionas, Panayotis Michaelides
Alternative Strategies for overcoming the Greek crisis.*
Rearranging social security contributions: Alleviating the burden of the state and
returning value to the state and the society.*
Thomas Poufinas, Effrosyni Kouskouna
Extroversion within a new economic paradigm.*
Grigoris Zarotiadis, Eirini Ozouni
Okun’s Law in Greece in the Post-Crisis era: An Empirical Study.*
What drives Greek Exports Performance? A macro level analysis.*
George Geronikolaou, Eleftherios Spyromitros, Panagiotis Tsintzos
The Determinants of Greek Bond Yields: An Empirical Study Before and During the Crisis.
Chionis Dionysis, Ioannis Pragidis, Panagiotis Schizas
The Impact of Sovereign Debt Ratings to Bank Ratings and Financial Performance of
the Banking System.
Evangelos Drimpetas, Themistokles Lazarides
How Flexible Working influence Unemployment? Evidence from Greek Labour Market.
Karamanis Kostas, Hyz Alina
Determination of the maritime ports economic effects on national Economy.
Dimitriou Dimitrios, Mourmouris John
To see the program in PDF format, please click here.
The Economic Chamber initiated its series of events at the historic building of the Old Parliament House, which is located on Stadiou Street (Kolokotroni square) downtown Athens. This monumental venue is directly linked to Modern Greek political history, since it was built in 1858 and it housed the Greek Parliament between 1875 and 1935. After being granted to the Historical and Ethnological Society of Greece in 1960, it became the house of the National Historical Museum in 1962. It is considered amongst the architectural jewels for the city of Athens and ideal for events of historical and cultural nature due to its large conference hall and classical decor.